Smart bidding for complex products

Here's a long-ish thought for performance marketers in complex verticals.

TLDR: apply common sense when using smart bidding. Use what actually works, and not what "should work".

Google has a habit of pushing its latest products on advertisers, sometimes ignoring what actually fits their business model or funnel type.

If you are using manual bidding, there's no way your Google rep won't suggest you stop using it, as it's old, not infused with AI signals, and frankly embarrassing to have in your account.

What Google doesn't hide but also doesn't mention much, is that smart bidding requires conversion data to bring results, just like any algorithm needs data to learn from. More data, better quality data, better results.

So what about high-LTV products, sophisticated leadgen, B2B or complex funnels, where you might not get enough volume per campaign or product type to switch to smart bidding - at least for the first couple of months?

Considering you've checked your tracking setup, maximized offline conversion inputs, and given Maximize Conversions a fair shot without success - the most obvious options are:

• Adding mid-funnel conversions can increase signal volume, but on high-budget campaigns with smart bidding it risks tanking ROAS while leaving end conversions flat - test carefully before committing.
• Stay proficient in manual bidding - it still works where automation can't. But this only holds if manual campaign management is genuinely in your skillset: understanding campaign structure, match types, bid adjustments, quality score levers, and what the metrics are actually telling you. If you started in paid search before smart bidding existed, you likely have this. If you didn't, it's worth building before relying on it.

Pair that with deep user research: understanding who your users are, whether they're problem or solution aware, and how they typically search - on Google or increasingly, on LLMs. Do it well, and you can manually replicate the infamous intent signals, the main selling point of smart bidding.